Research - Near Crisis Project - The University of Utah

The near crisis project: Why what you don’t know can hurt you

Article by Steven Lobell

Publications

Chong Chen, Jordan Roberts, Shikshya Adhikari, Victor Asal, Kyle Beardsley, Edward Gonzalez, Nakissa Jahnbani, Patrick James, Steven E. Lobell, Norrin M. Ripsman, Scott Silverstone, and Ann Van Wijk, “Tipping Points: Challenges in Analyzing International Crisis Escalation,” international Studies Review (2022).

Tony DeVille. Findings from a Minerva Research Initiative funded project on Near Crisis Escalation helped NATO leaders approve a new Strategic Concept that updated the alliance’s core tasks. (2022)

Steven Lobell, Power Projection, Deterrence Strategies, and Escalation Dynamics. (2021)

Evgeniia Iakhnis and Patrick James, “Near Crises in World Politics: A New Dataset,” Conflict Management and Peace Science (2019): 1-20.

PRESENTATIONS

Steven E. Lobell (University of Utah), “Power Projection, Deterrence Strategies, and Escalation Dynamics in an Era of Resurgent Near Peers, Rogue States, and Terrorist and Insurgent Organizations,” presented at the 2018 Minerva Meeting and Program Review, Washington DC September 26-27, 2018.

VIEW MM18 CONFERENCE SCHEDULE

Steven E. Lobell (University of Utah) and Kyle Beardsley (Duke University), “Power Projection, Deterrence Strategies, and Escalation Dynamics in an Era of Resurgent Near Peers, Rogue States, and Cross Border Networked Terrorist Organizations,” presented at the presented at the 6.1 Basic research Quarterly Review, February 25, 2019.

Steven E. Lobell (University of Utah) and Nakissa P. Jahanbani (SUNY-Albany), “Power Projection, Deterrence Strategies, and Escalation Dynamics in an Era of Resurgent Near Peers, Rogue States, and Terrorist and Insurgent Organizations,” presented at the 6.1 Basic research Quarterly Review, June 19, 2019, Arlington, VA.

Steven E. Lobell (University of Utah) and Kyle Beardsley (Duke University), “Power Projection, Deterrence Strategies, and Escalation Dynamics in an Era of Resurgent Near Peers, Rogue States, and Terrorist and Insurgent Organizations,” presented at the 2019 Minerva Meeting and Program Review, Washington DC September 18-19, 2019.

VIEW MM19 CONFERENCE SCHEDULE

Miriam Barnum and Patrick James, “Do Nuclear Weapons Matter? A Study of Near Crisis in the Process of Escalation.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Peace Science Society, Manhattan, Kansas, November 7-9, 2019.

This paper utilizes the near crisis data set from Iakhnis and James (2019) to explore the role of nuclear status across stages of escalation. Research on crisis escalation based on ICB Project data previously had been restricted to one stage.

Many statistical results have accumulated in response to the research question about why some crises escalate to war while others do not. These findings provide the foundation for a model that focuses on whether near crises – a new type of conflict process – result in crises or simply de-escalate. Data analysis reveals some similarities between the two stages of escalation, but also important differences. These results set an agenda for further research on the multiple stages of escalation from near crisis, to crisis, all the way up to war.

International Studies Association’s (ISA) annual conference (SB56: Saturday 10-11:45, March).

Near-Crisis and Crisis Escalation Dynamics: New Evidence

Chair: Kyle Beardsley

“What Organizational Level Factors Make VNSAs More Likely to Be Involved in International Crises and Near Crises?”